Orhan Sancar, CIS Countries Coordinator at PEGAS Touristik, shared his assessment of recent developments in Russia and the CIS markets with Turizm Ekonomi, sister B2B portal of Türkiye Travel News, outlining expectations for 2026.
Sancar stated that 2025 largely unfolded in line with expectations in Russia—Türkiye’s largest tourism market—and surrounding CIS countries. However, he underlined that geopolitical developments in Israel, Iran, and Ukraine, combined with high inflation in Türkiye, made 2025 a year full of uncertainties. As a result, he said the year will close with a slight loss in Russia and the CIS markets.
“Under normal circumstances, around 4.2 million Russian tourists were expected to arrive in Antalya on package tours. However, we now estimate the figure to be closer to 4 million,” Sancar said.
“500,000 Russian and CIS tourists did not stay in hotels”
Sancar noted that not all of the 4 million visitors stayed in hotels. “A portion of Russian and CIS travelers chose Airbnb or private homes instead of hotels. I estimate this loss at around 500,000 people. This means we are 10–15 percent below our original 2025 targets,” he explained.
“PEGAS reached Its target of 850–900 thousand tourists”
Thanks to hotel discounts and favorable weather conditions, the season in Russia extended into December, helping to close part of the gap. “While reaching 4 million Russian tourists initially seemed difficult, we now believe tour operators can achieve this by the end of December. As PEGAS, our target from Russia was around 850–900 thousand, and we have reached that figure,” Sancar said.
“Tour operators suffered losses in Kazakhstan”
Sancar highlighted that excessive seat capacity planning led to significant losses for tour operators in Kazakhstan. “Around 450,000 seats to Antalya were planned, but actual demand reached only 350,000. Airlines can cancel only 10 percent of unused seats without penalty; the rest incur no-show penalties. As a result, Kazakhstan was the market where tour operators suffered the greatest losses in 2025,” he said.
For 2026, operators are therefore planning more cautiously, reducing Türkiye-bound capacity from Kazakhstan to around 350,000 seats.
“Vietnam weakened Türkiye’s position in Kazakhstan”
According to Sancar, Türkiye’s setback in Kazakhstan is largely due to the aggressive marketing of alternative destinations, particularly Vietnam, which offers both summer and winter tourism options. “Vietnam became a strong alternative to Türkiye, especially given high inflation and prices in Türkiye, supply-demand imbalances, and Kazakhstan’s shorter flight distances to Asian destinations,” he noted.
“Russian airlines returned to international operations”
Sancar also pointed to positive developments for Russian carriers. Due to sanctions, aircraft previously transferred to Russian registration became double-registered and were limited to domestic flights. “This issue has now been resolved. Russian airlines have purchased these aircraft, removed the dual registration, and resumed international flights. As soon as this happened, they began flying to destinations such as Egypt, Thailand, Cuba, and Venezuela,” he said.
Türkiye no longer an ‘irreplaceable’ destination for Russia
Sancar warned that Türkiye’s previously unrivaled position in the Russian market is under threat. “During the pandemic and sanctions period, Türkiye became an almost irreplaceable destination for Russian tourists. But over the past six months, with Russian airlines flying again to Vietnam, Thailand, and Egypt—and with Dubai already accessible—Türkiye is no longer without alternatives. If Europe also reopens in the future, this position will weaken further,” he cautioned.
“Everyone is now more cautious about Türkiye”
Despite these risks, Sancar believes 2026 will be better than 2025 for Russia and the CIS. “If inflation stabilizes, the current exchange rate is accepted, and Türkiye’s prices are absorbed by the market, we will enter a more stable period. Tour operators, travel agencies, and consumers are all approaching Türkiye more cautiously. People know Türkiye is no longer cheap, but they also expect high-quality service,” he said.
“Positioning Türkiye solely as a high-end destination is a mistake”
Sancar criticized the narrative of branding Türkiye exclusively as an upper-income destination. “We are not the Seychelles, Maldives, or Mauritius. We are a mass tourism destination with huge bed capacity in a country of 85 million people. Around 90 percent of our target market will always be 3-star, 4-star, and budget 5-star hotels. High-income guests are important, but they should not be the core focus,” he said.
He added that overemphasis on luxury tourism has caused serious difficulties for mid-scale hotels in 2025 and warned that Türkiye cannot reach 60 million tourists and USD 60 billion in revenue by targeting only high-end travelers—especially with 150 new accommodation facilities set to enter the market next year.
“Uzbekistan market held back by national airline monopoly”
Sancar said the Uzbekistan market remains underdeveloped due to the national airline’s monopoly on resort routes. “Because this monopoly cannot be broken, potential remains limited to around 50–60 thousand visitors,” he said.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian market is showing renewed potential. Although there are currently no direct flights, many Ukrainian citizens travel to Türkiye via Moldova, Romania, and Poland, supported by EU funds and other assistance programs.
“Early bookings up nearly 100 percent”
Sancar revealed that early bookings for 2026 are up nearly 100 percent compared to 2025, driven by discounts of up to 40 percent. However, he warned that inconsistencies in pricing undermine confidence in early booking campaigns, as last-minute travelers sometimes pay less than those who booked early.
“Antalya may host 4.5 million Russian tourists in 2026”
Concluding his remarks, Sancar shared his 2026 outlook: “We expect around 4.5 million Russian tourists to Antalya, 500–600 thousand to Bodrum and Dalaman, and around 1 million to Istanbul. This means total Russian arrivals could reach 7 million, although a more realistic closing figure for 2026 would be around 6.5 million.”