Speaking to Savaş Daş,"Editor-in-Chief" of Turizm Ekonomi (the sister portal of Türkiye Travel News), Maya Lomidze, Executive Director of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR), provided a comprehensive assessment of the shifts in the Russian tourism market following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
Lomidze highlighted that the closure of the Persian Gulf market has dealt a severe blow to the industry, resulting in a 30% decline in overall tour sales for March 2026. While Türkiye remains the top choice for Russian travelers this summer, the geopolitical climate and rising costs have triggered a "wait-and-see" approach among consumers. Consequently, demand is increasingly shifting toward Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam and China, as the Russian market adapts to the loss of key Gulf hubs and seeks more stable, competitively priced alternatives.
Russia’s outbound tourism market faces structural shift
Here are the questions posed by Savaş Daş to Maya Lomidze and her detailed responses:
What is the overall impact of the conflicts in the Middle East (involving the US, Israel, and Iran) on the Russian tourism market?
The strongest negative impact has been felt in inbound tourism and, naturally, in outbound tourism. Following the start of full-scale armed conflict on February 28, 2026, the Russian tourism market faced an unprecedented situation: the closure of key destinations such as the United Arab Emirates, along with Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and other Persian Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia’s promising potential market, including its new resorts on the Red Sea, has also been temporarily closed.
Gulf market closure creates major supply gap
In 2025, Russian citizens made 2.58 million trips to the six Persian Gulf countries (UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait). According to our estimates, this corresponds to 12.8% of last year's total outbound tourist flow of 20.14 million. More than 90% of these 2.58 million trips were made to the UAE. The loss of such a market is a severe blow to the sector: following the recommendations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the tourism regulator, the Ministry of Economic Development, tour operators are prohibited from organizing and selling tours to Persian Gulf countries. Furthermore, the sale of individual services, such as accommodation or flights, is not recommended.
Transit disruptions impact long-haul destinations
However, the impact of the conflict was even broader: the UAE and other countries in the region served as transit hubs for approximately 700,000 Russians traveling to the Indian Ocean islands, parts of Southeast Asia, and even Europe (via Kuwait).
A critical dependence on connecting flights through the Persian Gulf emerged for many destinations: Mauritius and African countries (85%), Malaysia (65%), Indonesia (50–55%), Maldives and Seychelles (35–40%). At least 10 countries popular among Russians, including Thailand, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines, are at risk. Connections in Persian Gulf countries were generally cheaper than alternatives. Their loss has led to the disappearance of low-cost flights to exotic islands.
Sales decline and financial losses mount
Combined with the temporary ban on tour sales to the UAE and other Gulf countries, this situation caused an overall year-on-year decline of 30% in Russian tour operators' sales in March 2026.
According to our estimates, the total direct losses of tour operators resulting from the ban on tour sales to the Middle East are evaluated to be between 7 and 10 billion rubles.
At the beginning of the crisis, the proportion of customers requesting refunds for tours to closed countries was below 10%, but by the end of March, this rate exceeded 35%. Most tourists with tours booked to "problematic" countries are not giving up on their holidays; they are postponing their trips to a later date or choosing alternative routes. This rebooking process does not always proceed smoothly due to the need for additional payments; however, since the evacuation process to Russia for tour operator clients was much more organized compared to tourists who booked independently, audience loyalty toward tour operators generally remains intact.
Are changes being observed in the demand for tours and the pace of bookings for Turkey (in a positive or negative direction)?
Türkiye will undoubtedly remain the primary and largest mass beach destination for Russians in the 2026 summer season. This is due to the widest flight network from Russian cities, the traditional popularity of Antalya and the Aegean coast as clear and familiar destinations for the Russian consumer, the vast and diverse room capacity, and the "all-inclusive" system favored by Russians.
However, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and its tendency to spread to other countries has created a negative information environment that has slowed down bookings for Türkiye and Egypt.
Türkiye should show more positive results in April
It is noteworthy that in March, the flow of Russian tourists to Antalya decreased by 3% following a successful February. According to our analysts' data, Türkiye should show more positive results in April, thanks to some tours originally destined for the Middle East being redirected to Antalya, and some transit tourists choosing Istanbul instead of Persian Gulf countries.
As for summer bookings, we cannot yet say that Türkiye has benefited from the redistribution of tourist flows. Despite the assurances of tour operators, many tourists under the influence of the media are currently postponing decisions regarding trips to Türkiye and have entered a "wait-and-see" mode.
Turkish hotels need to offer competitive prices
This situation also affects the plans of tour operators—some see a "stagnation" in summer bookings and are already relinquishing block seats on flights to Türkiye from certain cities.
It is currently difficult to make a forecast for the summer season in Türkiye—there are too many factors influencing consumer behavior and the tourism business. The majority of bookings may be made within the season, but for bookings to increase, Turkish hotels need to offer competitive prices: the real income of Russians is not increasing; on the contrary, it has been falling for the second year.
Other destinations dependent on connections via Gulf states are also suffering
Which destinations have been most affected by the current situation?
The most affected have undoubtedly been the Persian Gulf countries themselves—UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Demand for them has almost stopped, and tour sales are prohibited.
However, as I mentioned earlier, other destinations dependent on connections in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman are also suffering.
For example, in March, the number of Russian visitors to Mauritius, a luxury island destination, decreased by 38.3%; the tourist flow from Russia to Sri Lanka fell by 19.4% in March; and the Russian tourist flow to the Maldives showed only a very slight increase in March (+3.5%) (there were year-on-year increases of 34.5% and 19.4% in January and February, respectively). The tourist flow from Russia to Thailand decreased by 6.14% year-on-year in March.
We are currently recording a sharp "flow" in demand toward the Southeast Asia region, mostly to countries with extensive direct flight networks. For instance, interest in Vietnam has tripled, while interest in China has increased by one-third; Thailand, for now, is maintaining its position.
How has geopolitical tension affected pricing policy?
According to data from major tour operators, the average price of tours to Türkiye increased by 4-6% this year, reaching 130,000 rubles per person. However, the cost of holidays for families with children remains high, ranging between 400,000 and 500,000 rubles for a trip for three or four people at a standard five-star hotel; this represents a serious financial burden for many Russian families due to the lack of rising incomes.
Turkish hoteliers are also starting to carefully offer special deals
Due to the consequences of the crisis, many foreign destinations are currently trying to stimulate the flow of foreign tourists (including those from Russia) through discount policies and special offers. For example, Maldives hotels are already providing discounts of 5-20% to Russian tour operators due to the decline in tourist flow from Europe. Sri Lanka is also beginning to do this. Prices in Egypt, at least, are not increasing. According to our current sentiment, Turkish hoteliers are also starting to carefully offer special deals to stimulate demand—and this is the correct policy for encouraging demand.
Are airline transportation offers on the Russia-Turkey line currently sufficient for this year?
While summer air transport between Russia and Türkiye has the widest flight network (19-25 Russian cities) and the largest seat volume across various tour operators, we believe it could be even larger.
Türkiye’s tourist numbers don’t tell the whole story
It should be remembered that in 2019, the most successful year for Türkiye, tourists were flying to Antalya from 50 cities in Russia. The fact that the tourist flow to Türkiye is approaching 7 million (the 2019 level) is misleading—because the increase mainly stems from short stays in Istanbul by transit tourists and much less from the resorts in Antalya and the Aegean coast, which are the main products of tour operators.
Nevertheless, current demand is generally being met. One of the key trends limiting demand for Turkey as a beach holiday is prices, which often do not align with budgets.
This situation, combined with the current wait-and-see policy of tourists regarding summer bookings, is pushing some market players to remove block seats on flights from certain regional cities. This is a quite concerning signal, but we traditionally rely on the flexibility and business acumen of the Turkish tourism industry. Instinct and logic have generally not failed them in such situations in the past.
What are your overall forecasts for the 2026 tourism season?
Despite geopolitical uncertainty and a high degree of unpredictability, we maintain our cautious optimism. However, it is too early to make forecasts with definitive figures.
Firs five destinations in Russian market
Our analysts have preliminarily identified five leaders for the 2026 summer season.
Türkiye will undoubtedly take the first place again. However, it is difficult to predict growth dynamics compared to last year. ATOR analysts were speaking of a possible moderate growth (3-5%) even before the events in the Persian Gulf. Demand for transit passengers via Istanbul will certainly increase, but the dynamics of the Russian tourist flow to Antalya will depend on the pricing policy of hoteliers and the extent of discounts.
Egypt ranks second. This destination supports sales thanks to its prices. In particular, the luxury hotel segment, which has lower prices compared to its counterparts in Turkey, is growing well.
China will take the third spot. The classic tourist flow to this country is increasing rapidly due to the wide flight network and comfortable hotel prices. Chinese hoteliers on Hainan island are also gradually starting to implement the "all-inclusive" system.
The Middle East crisis has led to a diversification of demand in Russia
Fourth place is likely to be held by Vietnam, where Russian tour operators are organizing extensive charter programs. Thailand occupies the fifth spot. This top 5 is valid provided that nothing else happens.
The Russian market always shows high adaptability. The Middle East crisis has led to a diversification of demand in outbound tourism: Asian countries such as Vietnam, China, and possibly Thailand are currently benefiting. We expect this trend of increasing demand for Southeast Asia to continue throughout the year.
The recovery of demand for Middle Eastern destinations in Russia, particularly for the UAE, will, in my opinion, be possible at the earliest by the beginning of summer and on the condition that the stable escalation of the conflict subsides. In an optimistic scenario, we estimate that the Russian tourist flow to the Persian Gulf region could recover to 60-70% of the 2025 figures by the end of 2026.