Türkiye’s tourism sector continues to face a gap between foreign-currency revenues and rising domestic costs, according to an assessment by the Mediterranean Touristic Hoteliers and Operators Association (AKTOB) following the release of September 2026 inflation data.
AKTOB President Kaan Kaşif Kavaloğlu said the gap between exchange-rate increases and costs continued to put pressure on the real income and margins of accommodation businesses earning foreign-currency revenues.
During the first nine months of 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 24.32%, while the euro rose by approximately 10.4% against the Turkish lira.
AKTOB said the figures showed that the decline in inflation had not yet eliminated pressure on the tourism sector’s real earnings and profitability.
Exchange-rate gains lag behind inflation
According to September 2026 data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), annual inflation fell to 29.73%, while monthly inflation was 1.84%. Prices increased by 24.32% compared with December 2025, while the increase based on 12-month averages was 31.49%.
As of September 30, 2026, the US dollar was trading at around TRY 49.02, while the euro stood at approximately TRY 55.70.
Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has gained approximately 13.91% against the lira, while the euro has risen by 10.36%. This compares with a 24.32% increase in consumer prices during the same period.
As a result, the gap between inflation and the increase in the dollar exchange rate was approximately 10.4 percentage points, while the gap with the euro was approximately 14 percentage points.
The divergence is particularly significant for accommodation businesses whose revenues are largely generated in euros and other foreign currencies.
A €100 revenue example
AKTOB illustrated the impact of the exchange-rate and inflation gap with a simple example.
If TL revenue equivalent to €100 at the beginning of the year increased nominally by approximately 10.4% in line with the euro/lira exchange rate by September, its real purchasing power in TL terms would have fallen by approximately 11%, given the 24.32% increase in the general price level during the same period.
On the same basis, the real loss would be approximately 8% in dollar terms.
AKTOB stressed that this calculation does not mean that businesses’ profits have fallen by 11%. Occupancy, room rates, contract increases, revenue diversification and individual cost structures all affect final profitability.
However, the calculation shows that when foreign-currency selling prices remain unchanged, exchange-rate gains are insufficient to offset increases in prices in Türkiye.
Tourism revenue in foreign currency, costs largely in TL
A significant share of accommodation sector revenues is generated in foreign currencies, while labour, energy, food, maintenance, transportation, rent and many other service costs are affected by domestic price movements in Türkiye.
This makes the balance between exchange rates and inflation particularly important for the sector.
In September, annual price increases reached 39.99% for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, and 35.10% for transportation. Both rates were above headline inflation as well as annual exchange-rate increases.
Cost pressures also continued on the services side. According to TÜİK’s latest August 2026 data, the Services Producer Price Index increased 33.29% year on year and 2.87% month on month.
The Domestic Producer Price Index rose 27.38% year on year and 2.07% month on month in September.
As a result, the decline in headline inflation has not translated into an equivalent reduction in tourism businesses’ cost structures.
Inflation is falling, but real income pressure remains
For the tourism sector, the figures cannot be assessed solely through the fact that inflation has fallen below 30%.
During the first nine months of 2026, prices increased by 24.32%, while the euro’s gain against the lira remained at approximately 10.4%. This has created a significant exchange-rate and cost gap, particularly for businesses selling accommodation in euros in European markets.
If a hotel keeps its euro-denominated price unchanged, its TL revenue increases, but domestic costs rise faster. The ability to pass the difference on to room prices is also limited by international competition.
Hotels in Antalya cannot determine their prices solely according to domestic inflation in Türkiye. Prices in Spain, Greece, Egypt and other Mediterranean destinations, consumer purchasing power in source markets, tour operator contracts and airline costs also influence pricing.
Exchange-rate and cost balance critical for 2027
The situation is also important for the 2027 season, as a significant share of tourism prices and tour operator contracts are determined months before the season begins.
Energy, labour, food, maintenance and other operating costs, however, continue to change throughout the year.
For the sector, therefore, it is not only the direction of inflation that matters, but also the need for inflation, exchange rates and operating costs to move along a more balanced and predictable path.
AKTOB said prolonged periods in which exchange-rate gains lag significantly behind cost increases could continue to put pressure on real earnings and margins at business level, even when visitor numbers and tourism revenues remain high.
Kaan Kavaloğlu: Real earnings must also be protected
AKTOB President Kaan Kaşif Kavaloğlu said the decline in annual inflation below 30% was positive for the economy, but the exchange-rate and cost balance also needed to be considered when assessing tourism performance.
“We view the downward trend in inflation positively. However, we also need to look at the picture from a different perspective for tourism. Our sector generates foreign-currency revenues, but a significant portion of our costs arise in Türkiye. Inflation exceeded 24% during the first nine months of the year, while the increase in the euro remained at around 10%. Therefore, our revenues and costs are not moving at the same pace,” Kavaloğlu said.
He noted that tourism businesses could not directly pass all cost increases on to their prices.
“Tourism is one of the sectors where international competition is most intense. We cannot determine Antalya’s prices solely according to costs in Türkiye. We compete for the same customers in the same markets with Spain, Greece, Egypt and other destinations in the Mediterranean,” he said.
“If our costs rise with inflation while the TL value of our foreign-currency revenues does not increase at the same pace, this naturally puts pressure on the real earnings and margins of our businesses.”
Kavaloğlu said the priority was not only for inflation to decline, but for the decline to be reflected in operating costs as well.
“A more balanced and predictable structure needs to emerge between exchange rates, inflation and costs. We make our tourism contracts months in advance, while our costs continue to change throughout the season. Therefore, as we move towards 2027, we need a balance that allows us to protect both the sector’s international competitiveness and its real earnings,” he said.
Kavaloğlu added that the sector should focus not only on visitor numbers but also on the economic value generated.
“Antalya’s goal should go beyond attracting more visitors and focus on increasing revenue per visitor, accommodation revenue and the added value we generate. We have to generate greater value without compromising service quality and turn this into a sustainable economic model for businesses,” he said.
