Engin Çağlı - Turizm Ekonomi
Türkiye’s tourism industry is heading into 2027 with a number of flight frequency reductions already visible in airline schedules. According to an assessment based on announced flight programs and aircraft allocations, capacity from several key European source markets is expected to decline next year.
The assessment indicates that the decline in flight capacity could continue through 2028, although the reduction in aircraft numbers is not expected to be as significant in 2027 as it was in 2026.
The UK market is expected to record a minimum 5% decline in aircraft capacity, while reductions of around 5% are also anticipated in the Netherlands and Germany. Capacity from Scotland and Ireland is expected to fall by at least 10%, while Switzerland could see a decline of around 20%, based on current aircraft allocations.
These projections are based on current airline schedules and announced flight programs. The schedules may still change depending on booking performance and subsequent capacity decisions by airlines.
Changes in the UK market
Several changes are already visible in the UK market.
For Istanbul, Wizz Air is scheduled to terminate a total of 14 weekly frequencies operated from Gatwick and Luton airports by the end of October.
At İzmir Adnan Menderes Airport, easyJet’s Luton services are not included in the 2027 schedule. The route is losing two weekly frequencies. The airline has already discontinued its Manchester service this year, while its Liverpool route was previously terminated. easyJet is currently expected to maintain its Gatwick connection to İzmir.
There is no change currently reported in easyJet’s Bodrum schedule.
Jet2, however, is reducing frequencies on several Bodrum routes. Bristol, Glasgow and Liverpool services are each scheduled to operate at one weekly frequency in 2027, representing a combined reduction of three weekly flights.
Ryanair is also scheduled to end its Bodrum services at the end of October. Local tourism representatives previously held talks with the airline, but the discussions did not result in a continuation of the service, according to information cited in the assessment.
Frequency reductions at Dalaman
Several changes are also emerging at Dalaman Airport.
Jet2 is reducing its frequencies on a number of routes. The Bristol-Dalaman service is scheduled to operate five times weekly, Leeds-Dalaman six times weekly and Liverpool-Dalaman three times weekly. Overall, the carrier’s schedule includes three fewer weekly flights on these routes.
A Turkish-German joint-venture airline is also reducing capacity on its Dalaman-Edinburgh route. Four weekly frequencies are scheduled to be discontinued in 2027.
Significant cuts in Antalya’s 2027 schedule
Antalya Airport is among the destinations where a number of significant reductions are already visible in the 2027 schedules.
The same Turkish-German joint-venture airline is removing several routes from its Antalya program. Antalya-Cork services will not operate in 2027, eliminating two weekly frequencies.
The Antalya-Luton route is also being discontinued, removing two weekly frequencies. The Antalya-Liverpool service, which had previously been suspended, will not return to the 2027 schedule, representing another two weekly frequencies.
The Antalya-Bristol route is also being removed, with its three weekly frequencies excluded from the 2027 program.
The affected routes represent connections between Antalya and several important points in the British market.
Major reductions on Germany routes
Another Turkish airline is also making substantial changes to its Germany-related Antalya schedule.
The following routes have been removed from the 2027 program:
• Antalya-Berlin: 7 weekly frequencies
• Antalya-Dresden: 5 weekly frequencies
• Antalya-Erfurt: 4 weekly frequencies
• Antalya-Frankfurt: 7 weekly frequencies
• Antalya-Friedrichshafen: 3 weekly frequencies
• Antalya-Baden: 3 weekly frequencies
• Antalya-Münster: 7 weekly frequencies
• Antalya-Stuttgart: 2 weekly frequencies
• Antalya-Basel: 7 weekly frequencies
• Antalya-Zurich: 7 weekly frequencies
These routes are currently not included in the airline’s 2027 schedule.
The airline is also reducing frequencies rather than completely cancelling several other routes. Hamburg-Antalya will fall from seven to three weekly frequencies, while Hannover-Antalya will also decline from seven to three.
The Leipzig-Antalya service will decrease from seven to five weekly frequencies, although the frequency is expected to fall to two after the end of July. Rostock-Antalya will also be reduced from four to two weekly frequencies.
The current schedule therefore indicates a substantial reduction in the airline’s Antalya capacity for 2027.
easyJet reduces capacity on additional routes
easyJet is also scheduled to discontinue its Basel and Berlin routes to Antalya. The two services represent a combined reduction of two weekly frequencies.
No additional cuts have been identified in the airline’s Antalya program at this stage.
Frequency reductions at Alanya
Capacity reductions are also being recorded at Alanya-Gazipaşa Airport.
The airline’s Alanya-Düsseldorf service is being reduced by four weekly frequencies, while the Hannover route is losing three weekly frequencies. The Alanya-Amsterdam route is also subject to a frequency cancellation.
Why could the 2027 picture be different?
The current schedule indicates a different pattern from the one observed at the beginning of the 2026 season.
For 2026, significant reductions had been identified in the Aegean region, while major cuts in Antalya were not initially visible. However, weaker sales led some airlines to reduce frequencies significantly after May, resulting in lower capacity for Antalya during the season.
For 2027, substantial reductions are already visible in Antalya’s current flight programs.
However, the 2027 schedule is not yet final. Strong booking activity during October, November and December could lead airlines to add aircraft or frequencies to their programs in January. The current situation therefore reflects the schedules available at the time of assessment.
Competition from alternative destinations
Türkiye’s inflation rate and hotel prices will also influence the competitive environment in the European holiday market.
For all-inclusive holidays, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia are among the destinations competing for demand. Greece is also cited as an alternative, particularly for bed-and-breakfast and apartment-based holidays.
At the same time, flight capacity to Spain, Italy and Portugal is increasing on several markets.
Against this backdrop, current airline schedules for Türkiye show frequency reductions rather than additional capacity on a number of routes.
The 2027 flight program remains subject to change as airlines adjust capacity according to booking levels and market conditions. Based on the schedules currently available, however, several European markets are showing lower capacity to Turkish destinations for the 2027 season.
