According to industry sources, fuel shortages at several airports have resulted in flight delays and cancellations, while jet fuel prices have risen significantly. The situation is creating substantial operational risks, especially for airlines planning to launch new services.

In response to the growing disruption, Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) has introduced a new approval procedure for scheduled and charter flight applications. Under the new policy, airlines seeking to launch new services to Russia will not receive operating approval until the relevant airport and fuel supplier confirm that sufficient aviation fuel capacity is available.

The measure is expected to lengthen the flight approval process, delay operational planning and postpone market entry for airlines intending to open new routes.

Industry representatives attribute the fuel supply problems to a combination of factors, including temporary reductions in Russia's refinery capacity, logistical disruptions and the impact of recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, which have affected fuel production and distribution.

Market observers also note that any further escalation affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or other disruptions to global maritime transport could place additional pressure on aviation fuel supplies alongside broader energy markets.

According to aviation experts, if current conditions persist, airline operations across Russia and neighboring countries may become increasingly difficult to plan. Approval processes for new routes could take longer, while operating costs for airlines are likely to increase.

The internationally recognized lifestyle and entertainment brand, located within Maxx Royal Bodrum Resort, had initially announced the suspension of its activities, citing "disagreements with its partner." In a second statement, however, the company provided detailed allegations regarding the circumstances that led to the closure.

According to Scorpios, the venue remains temporarily closed due to a series of restrictions imposed by Maxx Royal, which the company says made it impossible to operate in accordance with its standards, values and responsibilities.

Scorpios stated that suspending operations was not its preferred course of action but became unavoidable after all other options had been exhausted. The company also stressed that the decision was unrelated to noise complaints, licensing issues or administrative fines.

The company said it had chosen Türkiye for its second global destination because of its confidence in the country's potential and its ambition to establish a long-term cultural and hospitality brand in Bodrum.

In its statement, Scorpios claimed that Maxx Royal recently sought to amend the terms of their commercial agreement. According to the company, the proposed changes were considered unacceptable and therefore rejected. Scorpios further alleged that it was warned it would face consequences if it refused to accept the revised terms.

Scorpios listed the following operational restrictions, which it says were subsequently imposed by Maxx Royal:

• The removal of Scorpios' entrance and check-in area using construction machinery, the closure of the guest entrance, the elimination of guest parking and the requirement for visitors to enter through the Maxx Royal security checkpoint.

• Preventing the on-site ambulance and medical personnel from accessing the venue, requiring them instead to remain approximately 800 metres away.

• Restricting deliveries of food, ice and other essential supplies to Tuesdays and Saturdays between 12:00 and 13:00 only, which the company said severely disrupted the supply of essential goods and normal operations.

• Reducing the permitted music operating hours from 1:00 a.m. to midnight.

Scorpios said the safety and well-being of its guests, employees, artists and suppliers remain its highest priority and that it would not compromise the guest experience or its safety standards.

The company said that, under these circumstances, it had no alternative but to suspend operations temporarily. It also expressed hope that the current situation would not result in the permanent closure of Scorpios Bodrum.

Speaking to Tourism Economy, sister B2B portal of Türkiye Travel News, Torunoğulları said Türkiye’s growth in the UK market has been undermined by geopolitical tensions and economic challenges. He noted that rising costs and inflation have significantly weakened the country’s competitiveness, while British travelers increasingly opt for alternative destinations such as Egypt and Tunisia. He also warned that a sharp decline in city-center tourist activity could affect local businesses and shape tourism planning for 2027.

British tourists are changing their preferences

Torunoğulları stated that Türkiye has nearly doubled its tourism volume from the UK since 2019 but emphasized that demand is highly sensitive to geopolitical and economic developments.

“The Iran conflict had a serious impact on Turkish tourism. Before that situation could stabilize, Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on Russia. Combined with Türkiye’s inflation-driven cost increases, these developments have altered the preferences of British holidaymakers who have visited Türkiye for years,” he said.

According to Torunoğulları, the cost of dining out and shopping has reached levels that many visitors find difficult to justify.

“British tourists are changing course because of the prices they encounter. We are moving back toward pre-pandemic visitor levels,” he added.

2027 outlook already under pressure

Torunoğulları said the current slowdown is likely to affect tourism demand beyond next year.

“Tour operators will determine their 2027 seat allocations based on this year’s performance. Capacity planning will reflect current results, which is a clear indication that 2027 will not be better than 2026. The effects of economic problems and geopolitical conflicts do not disappear overnight,” he said.

Shift toward all-ınclusive destinations

The Orka Hotels executive noted that British travelers visiting Muğla are increasingly choosing all-inclusive resorts in Antalya, where holiday costs are more predictable.

“Tourists know exactly how much they will spend in an all-inclusive resort and avoid unexpected expenses. The decline in British arrivals to Muğla, while destinations such as Antalya, Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco continue to grow, clearly demonstrates this trend,” he said.

According to Torunoğulları, families often end up spending almost as much outside the hotel as they spend on the holiday itself when staying in destinations where expenses are not included.

City-center tourism down by 50%

Torunoğulları also pointed to rising rents and tighter regulations on short-term rentals of second homes as factors reducing demand.

“This visitor segment was one of the biggest contributors to local spending. Due to restrictions on second-home rentals, we have largely lost this market. Combined with the fact that all-inclusive guests are spending more time inside their hotels, tourist numbers in city centers have fallen by nearly 50%,” he said.

He warned that the trend is putting increasing pressure on local businesses and could lead to significant disruptions in tourism destinations by the end of the season.

Fixed exchange rate policy hurts hoteliers

Torunoğulları described the fixed exchange rate environment as one of the industry's biggest challenges.

“We sign contracts in foreign currencies, but we cannot reflect rising costs in our prices. UK partners argue that inflation in their market is only 2–3%, while costs in Türkiye have increased by 30–40%. Personnel expenses alone rose by 27.8%. Because exchange-rate growth has failed to match inflation, many hoteliers have stopped making profits over the last two to three years and are now focused on maintaining operations,” he said.

He added that the current exchange-rate policy is creating difficulties not only for tourism but also for the textile and export sectors.

TGA campaigns support demand recovery

Torunoğulları acknowledged the extensive promotional efforts being carried out by the Turkish Tourism Promotion and Development Agency (TGA) in the UK and Ireland.

He said bookings have improved since the start of the summer season.

“Hotels that were previously receiving 15 to 20 reservations per day are now seeing figures closer to 40 or 50. However, we are already at the end of June. Seasonal hotels must generate enough revenue in just two to two-and-a-half months to support operations throughout the year,” he noted.

Despite the recent improvement, he believes that next year’s outlook will largely depend on this year’s results and that current inflation levels do not suggest a major turnaround.

Higher hotel costs as guests stay on property

According to Torunoğulları, tourists are spending less time outside their hotels because of rising prices, which is increasing operational costs for accommodation providers.

“In the past, around 25% of all-inclusive guests would spend part of the day on excursions, visit water parks, join safaris or paragliding tours, or dine outside the hotel. This reduced hotel operating costs and eased pressure on facilities. Today, that 25% remains inside the resort, consuming more energy, water, food and beverages. Even cleaning supply usage has increased,” he explained.

Dining costs have more than doubled

Torunoğulları highlighted the impact of inflation on visitor spending.

“A family of four that could once enjoy a quality meal for £100 now faces a bill of £200 to £250. This is not a 10% or 20% increase; it is closer to 150%. Such inflation levels are difficult for British tourists to accept,” he said.

He also criticized excessive pricing practices by some businesses.

“If a product purchased for 15 Turkish lira is sold for 189 lira, that is difficult to justify. Even with a 100% margin, the price would be around 30 to 50 lira. Such pricing damages the destination’s image,” he said.

Occupancy rates down 15–25%

Torunoğulları reported that June occupancy levels, which would normally range between 75% and 80%, are currently around 60%.

“Depending on the property, occupancy has declined by 15% to 25%. When discounts introduced to stimulate demand are also taken into account, the revenue loss becomes even greater. Average revenue per guest falls as hotels lower prices in response to weaker demand,” he said.

He added that tour operators increasingly prioritize hotels offering the deepest discounts, often marketing them by category rather than by brand.

Investment plans remain on hold

Despite challenging market conditions, Torunoğulları said Orka Group continues to pursue selected investments.

The company recently opened a new 300-room hotel in the Netherlands under a franchise agreement with Radisson Blu, representing its largest recent investment.

In Türkiye, the group is planning to renovate one of its existing properties into an aqua park hotel and has additional tourism land available for future development. However, new projects remain on hold due to economic uncertainty, financing challenges and restrictions on foreign-currency lending.

“We have preparations in place and projects ready to move forward when conditions improve. We are currently evaluating opportunities for two boutique hotels in Fethiye and another property in the Turunç area of Marmaris, but we are waiting for the right market conditions,” he said.

Inflation must be the top priority

Torunoğulları concluded by stressing that controlling inflation and excessive pricing should be the government’s primary focus.

“Unless we address high prices and prevent excessive pricing practices, promotional campaigns and marketing efforts will not achieve their full potential. This should be the country’s top priority,” he said.

May arrivals down by 3.6%

According to official figures, the number of international visitors arriving in Türkiye fell by 3.58% year-on-year in May, declining to 4.856 million.

Russia remained the largest source market during the month with 701,000 visitors, followed by Germany with 686,000, the United Kingdom with 493,000, Bulgaria with 266,000 and Iran with 232,000 visitors.

More than 400,000 visitors lost in five months

During the January–May period, Türkiye welcomed 15.226 million foreign visitors, representing a 2.56% decline compared with the same period last year.

As a result, the country recorded a loss of more than 400,000 international visitors during the first five months of the year.

Germany ranked as Türkiye’s largest source market with 1.835 million visitors, followed by Russia with 1.739 million, the United Kingdom with 1.124 million, Bulgaria with 1.035 million and Iran with 904,000 visitors.

Sharp declines from gulf and middle eastern markets

The conflict triggered by military action involving the United States, Israel and Iran has significantly affected travel demand from Gulf and Middle Eastern countries.

Visitor arrivals from several countries in the region declined by as much as 54% during the first five months of the year. Nevertheless, Türkiye’s official statistics show that arrivals from countries classified under the “West Asia” category totaled approximately 1.1 million visitors, marking an overall decline of 11.16%.

Notable declines from the UK and Poland

While Germany posted growth of 5.44% to 1.835 million visitors, several major European source markets recorded declines.

Arrivals from Austria fell by 0.5% to 134,000, France by 5.69% to 322,000, the United Kingdom by 8.16% to 1.124 million, Poland by 8.47% to 382,000 and Greece by 4.67% to 244,000 visitors.

The Netherlands was one of the few European markets to record growth, increasing by 1.46% to 410,000 visitors.

Overall, arrivals from European countries declined by 0.83% to 7.594 million during the January–May period.

Russia and CIS markets remain in positive territory

Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) continued to support Türkiye’s tourism performance.

Russian arrivals increased by nearly 1% to 1.739 million visitors. Other CIS markets also reported growth, including Kazakhstan (+6.2% to 216,000), Azerbaijan (+0.84% to 319,000), Georgia (+3.36% to 519,000), Uzbekistan (+10.8% to 239,000) and Ukraine (+3.12% to 294,000 visitors).

Combined arrivals from Russia and CIS countries rose by 2.23% to 3.652 million visitors in the first five months of the year.

Mixed performance in emerging markets

Türkiye’s emerging long-haul source markets delivered mixed results.

Arrivals from the United States increased by 4.45% to 457,000 visitors, while Canada recorded a 14.4% rise to 107,000 visitors.

However, arrivals from Australia declined by 2% to 57,000 visitors, South Korea by 11.9% to 77,000 visitors and Japan by 11% to 54,000 visitors.

China grows strongly while India declines

China remained one of Türkiye’s fastest-growing source markets, with visitor numbers rising by nearly 29% to almost 200,000 arrivals.

In contrast, arrivals from India continued to weaken, falling by nearly 34% to 76,000 visitors.

Iran recorded a 23% decline to 904,000 visitors, while arrivals from Israel decreased by 10% to 31,000 and Saudi Arabia fell by 16.3% to 201,000 visitors. Visitor numbers from Romania also edged down by 1% to 312,000.

Speaking on EkoTürk TV, Vardar said Jolly is having a successful season overall and that expectations have largely been met. While the company is performing above expectations in terms of guest numbers, revenue growth has lagged behind. According to Vardar, Jolly is currently recording a 17% increase in customer numbers compared to the previous year, reflecting strong demand in the domestic market.

Hotel contract pricing has changed

Vardar noted that Türkiye is currently in a transition period regarding tourism pricing.

“In the past, hotel contracts could be renewed with annual price increases of just 1% or 2% in foreign currency terms. That is no longer possible,” he said.

He explained that rising inflation and the fact that exchange rates have not increased at the same pace as domestic costs have significantly changed the pricing structure. As a result, tourism prices in Türkiye are now increasing by approximately 20% to 25% in foreign currency terms.

‘Türkiye has gone through a sharp price transition’

According to Vardar, international visitors previously received services worth around $3,000 while paying approximately $1,000. Today, tourists still receive the same level of service but pay closer to $2,000.

“Tourists can still enjoy holidays in facilities offering features and services that are difficult to find elsewhere in the world at the same price level,” he said.

Vardar added that Türkiye had historically been perceived as an exceptionally low-cost destination, but pricing is now moving toward a more balanced level.

“Türkiye has gone through a sharp price transition, and it will take time for markets to accept this change. Over time, Türkiye will find the right pricing balance,” he said.

Regional conflict impacts tourism demand

Vardar also assessed the impact of the ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States on Turkish tourism.

He said the conflict has affected Türkiye from multiple directions.

“Tourists who chose not to travel to destinations such as Dubai did not automatically switch to Türkiye. The presence of a war in the region has affected Türkiye just as it has affected destinations such as Egypt,” he said.

Vardar noted that the Türkiye Tourism Promotion and Development Agency (TGA) and other tourism organizations have conducted intensive promotional efforts to communicate that Türkiye is not directly involved in the conflict.

He also pointed to a decline in arrivals from Arab markets, which has particularly affected city hotels. In addition, visitor flows from Iran and Israel have largely disappeared due to the regional situation.

Limited ability to respond with price cuts

Vardar said that during previous crises tourism businesses often relied on aggressive pricing strategies to stimulate demand. However, rising operating costs now limit the industry's ability to respond through direct discounts.

Instead, tourism companies are increasingly using value-added campaigns.

“We are not reducing prices directly. Together with our hotel partners, we are offering campaigns such as ‘stay five nights, pay for four,’ which still provide guests with an effective 25% price advantage,” he said.

Foreign tourists benefit from early booking

Addressing perceptions that foreign tourists pay less for holidays in Türkiye, Vardar said the situation is partly linked to booking patterns and length of stay.

International visitors typically book much earlier and stay significantly longer than domestic travelers. According to Vardar, the average stay for foreign tourists is 8.8 nights, compared with 3.2 nights for Turkish guests.

This allows tourism companies to optimize occupancy through longer-stay promotions rather than direct price reductions.

Early booking advantage narrows

Vardar also announced that summer sales campaigns began across travel agencies on June 10.

Under normal market conditions, he said, travelers booking six months in advance would expect to receive around a 40% price advantage compared with last-minute bookings. However, due to the current geopolitical environment and war-related uncertainties, that gap has narrowed to approximately 20% this year.

According to the publication, the Turkish Riviera continues to stand out among Mediterranean destinations thanks to its extensive all-inclusive offering, large-scale resort infrastructure, family-oriented facilities and well-maintained beaches.

BILD noted that hotel classification alone is often insufficient for travelers selecting accommodation, emphasizing that factors such as location, transfer times, beach access, resort size and guest profile play a decisive role in the holiday experience.

Belek leads the luxury segment

The ranking is dominated by Belek, which BILD identified as the region’s premier luxury destination, particularly for travelers who view the resort itself as the centerpiece of their holiday.

The publication named the following properties among its top recommendations for 2026:

1. Maxx Royal Belek Golf Resort
2. Regnum Carya
3. Cullinan Belek
4. Rixos Premium Belek
5. Titanic Mardan Palace
6. Concorde De Luxe Resort
7. Delphin Imperial Lara
8. Barut Hemera
9. Voyage Sorgun
10. Paloma Finesse

BILD described Maxx Royal Belek Golf Resort as a leading choice for travelers seeking luxury, spacious accommodation, high service standards and extensive family facilities. Regnum Carya was highlighted for its broad dining options and premium sports infrastructure, while Cullinan Belek was recognized for its contemporary design and modern resort concept.

Family travel drives demand

The publication identified Lara, Side and Belek as the strongest destinations for family holidays, citing water parks, child-friendly beaches, entertainment programs and comprehensive all-inclusive offerings as key advantages.

Among the properties recommended for families are Rixos Premium Belek, Delphin Imperial Lara and Voyage Sorgun.

According to the ranking, Lara’s proximity to Antalya Airport remains one of its strongest selling points, offering short transfer times for international visitors and tour operator clients.

Couples and lifestyle travelers

For couples and travelers seeking a quieter atmosphere, BILD highlighted Paloma Finesse Side and Barut Hemera as preferred options.

The publication noted that modern design, quality dining experiences and a more relaxed holiday environment are becoming increasingly important factors for guests in this segment.

Location remains a key booking factor

BILD emphasized that destination selection remains as important as hotel selection on the Turkish Riviera.

According to the analysis:

• Lara offers the shortest airport transfers from Antalya.
• Belek remains the region’s leading luxury resort destination and a major golf tourism hub.
• Side and Sorgun combine beach holidays with sightseeing opportunities and family-friendly infrastructure.
• Antalya city-area properties appeal to travelers seeking both urban experiences and seaside leisure.

Common booking mistakes

The publication also identified several recurring mistakes made by travelers when booking holidays on the Turkish Riviera, including choosing hotels based solely on star ratings, overlooking the property’s target market, misunderstanding room categories and underestimating transfer times.

BILD concluded that the Turkish Riviera’s strongest hotel products for 2026 fall into two main categories: large-scale luxury resorts in Belek and highly organized family-focused resorts in Lara and Side.
The newspaper noted that successful hotel selection depends less on promotional imagery and more on matching the property’s characteristics with travelers’ specific expectations regarding relaxation, family facilities, gastronomy and accessibility.

Speaking at the association’s April dinner meeting, Kavaloğlu stated that the concept of 12-month tourism is not only about extending the season, but also about redesigning the future of destinations.

“We need to evaluate success in tourism not through peak-season occupancy rates alone, but through year-round mobility, employment continuity, local economic contribution and sustainable growth indicators,” he said.

“The main goal is to spread tourism throughout the year”

Kavaloğlu noted that the primary objective is to distribute tourism demand more evenly throughout the year, strengthen economic sustainability and grow while protecting the carrying capacity of destinations.

According to Kavaloğlu, global tourism data from both 2019 and 2024 showed that international visitor traffic remained heavily concentrated in the July-August peak season. However, first-quarter data for 2025 pointed to a more balanced start during the January-March period, signalling a gradual global shift toward reducing seasonality.

He also emphasized that destinations are now facing not only the challenge of growth, but also the pressure created by that growth.

“Overcrowded visitor flows bring infrastructure pressure, labor shortages, increasing environmental impacts, resource consumption, housing pressure and debates over local quality of life,” Kavaloğlu said.

He described year-round tourism as a model that creates stronger employment, more balanced income distribution, lower pressure on destinations, higher value creation and greater sustainability.

“The new question facing the sector is no longer how to grow tourism, but how to achieve balanced growth throughout the entire year,” he added.

“Key source markets slowed and geopolitical impacts intensified”

Kaan Kavaloğlu stated that Antalya’s tourism figures for the January-April 2026 period reflected a slowdown in key source markets as well as increasingly visible geopolitical effects.

According to the figures, the number of foreign visitors arriving in Antalya declined by 10.54 percent year-on-year to 1.63 million, while the overall total, including Turkish citizens living abroad, fell by 9.54 percent to 1.87 million.

Despite the slowdown, Kavaloğlu said Antalya continues to maintain its core tourism markets. However, he noted that weakening demand has become more noticeable in certain European market segments.

“At the same time, continued growth in alternative European markets, particularly Romania, highlights the importance of market diversification strategies,” he said.

Kavaloğlu added that destination perception, promotional activities and accessibility will play a critical role in the coming period.

The data showed that the number of foreign visitors arriving in Türkiye fell by 9.44 percent year-on-year in April, dropping to 3.532 million.

Germany remained Türkiye’s largest inbound market during the month with 471,000 visitors, followed by the Russian Federation with 387,000, the United Kingdom with 318,000, Bulgaria with 230,000 and the Netherlands with 166,000 visitors.

About 10,4 million visitors in 4 four months

In the January-April period, the total number of visitors arriving in Türkiye decreased by 2.8 percent compared to the same period of 2025, falling to 10.369 million.

During the first four months of the year, Germany ranked first among source markets with 1.148 million visitors, followed by the Russian Federation with 1.038 million, Bulgaria with 769,000, Iran with 672,000 and the United Kingdom with 631,000 visitors.

Türkiye recorded particularly sharp declines in several key markets in April, including Germany (-17%), the United Kingdom (-15%), Austria (-12%), Poland (-19%), India (-46%), the UAE (-85%) and Saudi Arabia (-48%).

Mixed performance in emerging markets

The downturn also continued in India, one of Türkiye’s important growth markets, where visitor numbers in the first four months of the year declined by more than 33 percent to 54,500.

Among other important long-haul and cultural tourism markets, arrivals from South Korea fell by 6.61 percent to 62,000, while arrivals from Japan declined by 7.89 percent to 43,000 and arrivals from Australia dropped by 3.86 percent to 33,000 visitors.

In contrast, the number of visitors arriving from Canada increased by 17.5 percent, approaching 70,000 during the same period.

Speaking to Turizm Ekonomi, the sister B2B travel portal of Türkiye Travel News, Çavdır evaluated the impact of the Iran conflict on travel demand, booking trends and consumer behaviour across Europe, while also outlining Coral Travel’s outlook for the remainder of the season.

Demand shifts toward safer destinations

According to Çavdır, the conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel has negatively affected tourism demand across Europe, particularly in markets connected to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

“We are observing negative effects on overall market dynamics,” he said. “Bookings from Germany have declined, while travel demand across Europe has also slowed. Tourists have become more cautious. There has been a serious weakening in travel linked to the Middle East, and demand has shifted toward destinations perceived as safer.”

Demand for Türkiye, Egypt and Cyprus down up to 50%

Çavdır confirmed that Türkiye, Egypt and Cyprus have all been significantly impacted by the geopolitical uncertainty.

“There has been a decline of between 40% and 50% in demand for these three destinations,” he noted. “As Coral Travel, we are performing slightly better than the overall market thanks to the actions taken by our sales and marketing teams over the last two months, as well as the events we have organised together with our hotel partners.”

He also thanked hotel partners that supported these initiatives during the challenging period.

Türkiye remains competitive despite pricing concerns

Asked whether Türkiye’s pricing image has also contributed to weaker demand, Çavdır acknowledged rising costs but stressed that the destination continues to offer strong value for money.

“Although global energy and food costs have pushed prices higher, Türkiye still delivers a level of service quality above many European competitors,” he said. “Early booking opportunities and a wide range of products for different budgets continue to make Türkiye an attractive destination.”

Security remains a top concern for European travellers

Çavdır believes the current slowdown in the European travel market is closely tied to a “wait-and-see” mindset among consumers.

“According to data from the European Travel Commission, one in five Europeans now considers security the number one holiday criterion,” he explained. “Travellers who believe the conflict could escalate again are not necessarily cancelling travel plans altogether, but they are redirecting demand toward what they perceive as safer destinations.”

He added that the uncertainty is no longer limited to security concerns alone.

“Consumers also want to understand how operational risks such as fuel costs and flight cancellations may affect prices,” he said.

Last-minute demand unlikely to offset losses

Despite ongoing last-minute sales activity, Çavdır does not expect a strong late recovery for Türkiye during the high season or autumn period.

“There is still hesitation among consumers regarding both the peak summer season and autumn travel,” he stated. “Potential demand may create some movement, but it will not be enough to compensate for the season’s losses.”

According to Çavdır, the market is currently dominated by last-minute bookings, but sales depend heavily on proactive commercial action.

“If you take action, you can generate sales. If you do not, you cannot,” he said.

He also pointed to a growing shift toward Western European destinations, as well as increased interest in road-trip holidays, camping, caravanning and large cruise ships.

Coral Travel maintains long-term growth ambitions

While some major tourism groups have revised profitability expectations downward for 2026, Çavdır said Coral Travel remains committed to its broader growth strategy.

“As one of the fastest-growing tour operators in the German market, Coral Travel served 2.4 million European tourists in 2025,” he said. “Thanks to strong performance in the DACH region and Poland, our total guest volume reached 3.8 million.”

Çavdır stated that the company aims to further strengthen its position among Europe’s five largest tour operators in 2026.

“Our ability to operate across 15 source markets differentiates us from competitors and gives us confidence for the future,” he added. “With strong partners, fair price-performance balance and a high-quality service approach, we believe we can maintain efficiency through minor revisions.”

Strong agency network supports expansion

Çavdır also highlighted the importance of long-term partnerships with travel agencies across German-speaking Europe.

“We build trust-based and sustainable relationships with our agencies,” he said. “Today, we cooperate with around 5,800 active agencies in Germany, 500 in Austria and 300 in Switzerland.”

He added that Coral Travel sees strong growth potential in all three markets, noting that operations in Austria have already more than doubled thanks to close cooperation between local teams, agencies and hotel partners.

Speaking to Turizm Ekonomi, sister B2B travel portal of Türkiye Travel News, Aslan evaluated the latest developments in Antalya’s resort tourism market, including booking trends, pricing pressure and demand recovery following the geopolitical tensions triggered by the conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel.

Sharp slowdown followed by gradual recovery

According to Aslan, the war began at a time when tourism bookings were progressing strongly, but the sector immediately faced a significant decline in daily reservation flow.

“In the early days of the conflict, the contraction in bookings reached as high as 75 percent,” he said. “Today, we see that decline has eased to around 10 percent. People are gradually becoming more accustomed to geopolitical tensions. Initial reactions were much harsher, but daily booking volumes are now approaching last year’s levels.”

Aslan stated that, as of the first week of May, demand from Germany and wider Europe was down by around 15 percent, while the UK market saw a decline of approximately 10 percent.

Pricing pressure outweighs volume losses

Despite the improvement in booking activity, Aslan warned that pricing remains the industry’s main challenge.

“The numerical decline also created a major pricing impact,” he noted. “Not only did booking flow fall by 10–15 percent, but the planned 10 percent price increase could not be implemented. In short, the price increases expected during the transition from 2025 to 2026 have disappeared.”

He added that, even under the most optimistic scenario, hotels may only match last year’s revenue levels, with a risk of falling slightly below them.

“These bookings will not come back”

Aslan believes losses will continue as long as the conflict remains unresolved, although Türkiye could recover quickly once the situation stabilises.

He pointed to Spain as an example of a competing destination benefiting from the uncertainty.

“Spain is currently receiving more bookings than last year and, in some areas, has even stopped sales,” he said. “Many families, particularly in the UK, cancelled their Türkiye holidays because they feared they would not find availability in Spain later in the season or that prices there would rise further. Those cancelled bookings will not come back.”

Market shifts toward last-minute sales

According to Ramazan Aslan, Türkiye is currently operating largely on last-minute demand, with booking depth averaging around one month.

“When you move into a last-minute market, pricing becomes the key factor,” he said. “At that stage, hotels must closely monitor competitors and neighbouring destinations.”

At the same time, Aslan highlighted airline capacity as one of the sector’s biggest advantages this season.

“The positive side is that we do not currently face an aircraft capacity problem,” he explained. “There is no concern in the sector about being unable to secure flights for last-minute demand. There are some reports about reduced capacity and flight cancellations in the Russian market for May, but it is unclear how accurate they are.”

Support measures welcomed by the sector

Commenting on the Turkish government’s recently announced TRY 60 billion tourism loan support package and the reduction of accommodation tax from 2 percent to 1 percent, Aslan said the measures would provide some relief to investors.

“Any support package contributes to tourism and strengthens investors to some extent,” he stated. “Accommodation tax directly affects turnover and profitability, so we see the reduction as a positive step.”

However, he stressed that profitability remains the critical issue for the sector.

“What matters is not simply achieving occupancy, but under which conditions you achieve it,” Aslan said. “Tourism is a sector that generates foreign currency income for the country, and Türkiye must protect its market share without sacrificing sustainability.”

Aska Hotels adjusts supply strategy

Aslan also outlined how Aska Hotels adapted its operations to the current market conditions.

“We positioned ourselves as if the conflict would continue and took measures accordingly,” he said. “By analysing supply and demand within our group, we decided not to open one of our properties in order to balance capacity.”

He added that the group currently has no occupancy problems but aims to avoid aggressive last-minute price competition.

“Thanks to better supply-demand management, we expect to move forward with minimal losses,” Aslan concluded. “Our calculations indicate a maximum revenue decline of around 5 percent, and we have already prepared the groundwork for that scenario.”

Foreign arrivals rose by 2.21%, while visits from Turkish citizens living abroad increased significantly by 10.58%, highlighting stronger diaspora travel demand.

Europe leads growth in key source markets

European OECD countries continued to drive growth in Türkiye’s inbound tourism.

Germany, the country’s second-largest source market, saw a sharp 18% increase to 677,000 visitors. Austria rose 13.5% to 65,000, the Netherlands increased 3.43% to 147,000, the United Kingdom grew 3.43% to 314,000, and Poland increased 6.61% to 83,000.

Overall, arrivals from European OECD countries rose 8.86% to 2.09 million visitors in the first quarter.

Russia and CIS markets maintain steady growth

The Russia and CIS region remained a strong contributor to Türkiye’s tourism performance.

Russia recorded an 8.18% increase to 650,000 visitors. Georgia followed with 288,000 (+8.81%), Azerbaijan with 188,000 (+2.86%), Ukraine with 133,000 (+5.52%), and Kazakhstan with 98,000 (+22.45%).

Total arrivals from Russia and CIS countries increased 7.68% to 1.65 million visitors.

Mixed performance in emerging markets

Emerging markets showed divergent trends in the first quarter.

Iran declined sharply by 28% to 527,000 visitors, while China surged 43% to 111,000. India fell 23.26% to 39,000.

The United States increased 10% to 197,000 visitors, Canada rose 14.83% to 46,000, Australia grew 3.37% to 20,000, and South Korea edged up 0.5% to 47,000. Japan, however, declined 3.41% to 34,000.

Seasonal effects and market outlook

Minister of Culture and Tourism Mehmet Nuri Ersoy said Türkiye entered 2026 with growth despite global challenges, noting strong January performance with 3.13 million visitors (+6.1%), followed by a February decline attributed to Ramadan timing effects.

Ersoy emphasized that Ramadan-related shifts typically reduce demand by 20–25%, making the February decline a technical seasonal effect rather than structural weakness.

He also highlighted that Türkiye is evolving beyond a destination into a hub of trust, accessibility, experience and continuity, while warning that the sector may face a challenging second quarter due to geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility and global economic pressures.

Ersoy added that last-minute bookings are expected to dominate the coming period, with potential for a rapid rebound once geopolitical stability improves.

Geopolitical tensions weigh on global tourism

Ongoing geopolitical tensions triggered by the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran have negatively impacted global travel demand, particularly across the Gulf region and the broader Middle East. Rising security concerns, combined with increasing energy costs, have driven up travel prices and contributed to a slowdown in tourism activity, including in Türkiye.

Industry calls for tax relief partially addressed

The tax reduction follows sustained calls from tourism stakeholders for fiscal measures to mitigate the impact of declining demand and rising operational costs. The accommodation tax cut marks the first concrete response to these demands.

Sector leaders highlight competitive impact

President of Turkish Hoteliers Federation Erkan Yağcı stated that maintaining the accommodation tax at 1% until the end of 2026 will provide critical support to the sector. He emphasized that the measure will help preserve Türkiye’s global competitiveness, ensure price stability, and sustain its position in international markets. Yağcı also underlined the strategic importance of the decision at a time of increasing global competition, cost pressures, and geopolitical uncertainty.

President of Turkish Hoteliers Association Müberra Eresin noted that despite global challenges, tourism remains a strategically important sector. She described the broader Tourism Support Package as a key step in strengthening financial resilience. Eresin welcomed the tax cut and stressed the importance of designing support mechanisms in a more balanced and segment-based manner. She also suggested that converting the accommodation tax into a fixed fee collected directly from guests could further enhance competitiveness.

President of Association of Turkish Tourism Investors Oya Narin highlighted tourism’s critical role in employment, investment, and regional development. She stated that lowering the tax rate is a significant move in an environment of rising costs and intense competition. According to Narin, the reduction will provide pricing flexibility for accommodation providers, strengthen competitiveness, and support demand management. She added that, alongside Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) support mechanisms, the measure contributes to improving confidence across the sector.

The carrier had previously decided to halt services on the Istanbul–Leipzig and Istanbul–Havana routes. While the suspension to Havana has now been extended, the airline is also pausing operations across multiple destinations in Africa, as well as selected points in the Middle East and Asia.

According to the latest planning, the airline will gradually suspend flights to 18 international destinations as of May and June 2026.

Demand pressure and fuel costs drive decision

The decision follows escalating geopolitical tensions triggered by attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel. The resulting surge in fuel prices—nearly doubling—and rising ticket prices have led to a decline in passenger demand, prompting network adjustments.

List of suspended routes

The destinations where Turkish Airlines will suspend flights are:
• Aqaba
• Billund
• Bissau
• Fergana
• Freetown
• Havana
• Hurghada
• Juba
• Kinshasa
• Kirkuk
• Leipzig/Halle
• Libreville
• Luanda
• Lusaka
• Monrovia
• Najaf
• Pointe-Noire
• Turkistan

Gradual suspension strategy

The suspensions will be implemented progressively across May and June 2026, reflecting a capacity optimization strategy in response to declining demand and cost pressures.

The move highlights how global geopolitical developments and cost volatility continue to reshape airline network planning, particularly on long-haul and lower-yield routes.

Senior executives from three of Türkiye’s leading travel agencies—Jolly, TatilBudur, and Setur—shared insights with Turizm Ekonomi News Editor Savaş Daş on how the crisis is influencing domestic tourism. While they report no decline in prices, bu expect possibility of extended early booking campaigns. Agencies also anticipate another tight last-minute season, noting that although significant price fluctuations are not expected, the trajectory of the crisis could alter market conditions.

Jolly CEO Mert Vardar: “Sales momentum not driven by ıran crisis”

Jolly CEO Mert Vardar stated that there is no negative outlook for the domestic market this season and emphasized that the current sales performance is not linked to the conflict in Iran. “There is an increase from March to April, and we expect a similar rise from April to May,” said Vardar.

“No price drops, early booking discounts continue”

Vardar noted that domestic prices have not declined and standard early booking discounts remain in place. He added that the contraction in Gulf countries, Iran, and European markets has not impacted domestic pricing but has eased capacity constraints.

“There has been no reduction in hotel prices for the domestic market, but there is increased focus on it. We now have better availability in the hotels we want,” he said.

“High season prices will not fall below early booking levels”

Vardar indicated that pricing could shift if negative conditions in international markets persist into the high season. However, he stressed that current early booking prices represent a floor.

“Hotels did not implement the sharp inflation-driven increases seen in 2023 and 2024. Pricing has been more moderate. Prices are unlikely to fall further, but early booking campaigns may continue,” he said.

Growth outlook and outbound trends

Vardar reported that Jolly achieved 30% growth in 2025 compared to the previous year and expects similar growth in 2026. He also highlighted expectations for stronger last-minute sales in the domestic market.

On outbound travel, Vardar noted:
• Spain is the fastest-growing destination this year
• Dubai sales have stalled, with only limited forward bookings
• Egypt demand remains stable with minimal cancellations

He added that Gulf-based long-haul connections were revised due to the conflict but have since stabilized through adjustments with Turkish Airlines and Far East carriers. Europe is seeing strong demand, with Spain emerging as the standout destination.

TatilBudur Deputy GM Mustafa Kemal Çubuk: “Hotels may extend early booking offers”

Mustafa Kemal Çubuk, Deputy General Manager responsible for Sales and Operations at TatilBudur, stated that the geopolitical crisis has not led to significant price reductions in the domestic hotel market.

He emphasized that hotels have maintained January–February early booking price levels and may extend these conditions further.

“We observe that hotels are continuing low-price sales policies by extending early booking conditions in line with the crisis,” he said.

Increased domestic market focus

Çubuk pointed out that hotels are increasingly focusing on the domestic market due to limited alternatives.

“At present, the domestic market appears to be the only high-volume source for the sector,” he said.

“Demand ıs highly volatile”

Çubuk described domestic holiday demand as highly fluctuating, with peaks during holiday periods such as Eid.
• Antalya leads regional demand
• Muğla destinations (Bodrum, Fethiye, Marmaris) follow
• Mid-segment, budget-friendly properties are in highest demand

Strong growth expectations

TatilBudur entered 2026 with ambitious growth targets and has been tracking in line with expectations since February.

“We typically outperform the market during crisis periods, and we expect a similar trend this year. Despite our strength in last-minute sales, we are also experiencing a strong early booking period,” Çubuk said.

He added that even if the crisis ends quickly, it is unlikely to significantly reduce domestic demand or create a major demand surge, noting that tour operators and airlines’ positioning limits such a scenario.

Setur Deputy GM Koray Küçükyılmaz: “Wait-and-see behavior, but opportunity seekers active”

Setur Deputy General Manager Koray Küçükyılmaz stated that expectations for the domestic market in 2026 are higher compared to previous years.

“Price increases this year are around 30%, aligned with inflation, and we expected better acceptance from the market. Bookings were strong from October, but slowed in January and February. With the war, many consumers adopted a wait-and-see approach, although some are still pursuing opportunities,” he said.

Rising ınterest in outbound travel

Küçükyılmaz noted increased interest in outbound travel due to expectations of currency fluctuations, adding that international tours remain relatively affordable under current exchange rate policies.

“March pessimism is easing”

He stated that hotels are not currently inclined to reduce prices and that demand is progressing at a steady pace.

“The pessimistic sentiment seen in March is gradually dissipating. We are seeing momentum in April, but 2026 will largely be a last-minute year,” he said.

He explained that consumers observed last year that last-minute bookings could still secure early booking prices, reducing the perceived risk of waiting. Additionally, high interest rates incentivize consumers to delay purchases and earn financial returns.

Demand outlook and seasonal expectations

Küçükyılmaz expects stronger demand in May and during the Eid al-Adha holiday due to an extended vacation period.

He noted that destination search trends are not showing year-on-year growth, indicating moderate interest in domestic holidays despite intensive marketing campaigns.

Capacity and risk factors

He stated that no capacity issues are expected in the domestic market, noting that even last year only a few hotels reached full capacity.

However, he warned that prolonged conflict could negatively impact inbound tourism, particularly from Western Europe, while rising costs—especially in air transport—could increase package tour prices.

“In a scenario of heightened security risks and rising costs, consumers may choose not to travel. Some hotels may not open, while others may engage in price competition, which could boost domestic demand and last-minute sales,” he said.

Market uncertainty persists

Küçükyılmaz concluded that even in the event of a resolution between the US and Iran, April and May demand losses are already locked in.

“We are in a period of uncertainty where decisions are postponed week by week and stakeholders struggle to take clear positions,” he said.

Lomidze highlighted that the closure of the Persian Gulf market has dealt a severe blow to the industry, resulting in a 30% decline in overall tour sales for March 2026. While Türkiye remains the top choice for Russian travelers this summer, the geopolitical climate and rising costs have triggered a "wait-and-see" approach among consumers. Consequently, demand is increasingly shifting toward Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam and China, as the Russian market adapts to the loss of key Gulf hubs and seeks more stable, competitively priced alternatives.

Russia’s outbound tourism market faces structural shift

Here are the questions posed by Savaş Daş to Maya Lomidze and her detailed responses:

What is the overall impact of the conflicts in the Middle East (involving the US, Israel, and Iran) on the Russian tourism market?

The strongest negative impact has been felt in inbound tourism and, naturally, in outbound tourism. Following the start of full-scale armed conflict on February 28, 2026, the Russian tourism market faced an unprecedented situation: the closure of key destinations such as the United Arab Emirates, along with Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and other Persian Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia’s promising potential market, including its new resorts on the Red Sea, has also been temporarily closed.

Gulf market closure creates major supply gap

In 2025, Russian citizens made 2.58 million trips to the six Persian Gulf countries (UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait). According to our estimates, this corresponds to 12.8% of last year's total outbound tourist flow of 20.14 million. More than 90% of these 2.58 million trips were made to the UAE. The loss of such a market is a severe blow to the sector: following the recommendations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the tourism regulator, the Ministry of Economic Development, tour operators are prohibited from organizing and selling tours to Persian Gulf countries. Furthermore, the sale of individual services, such as accommodation or flights, is not recommended.

Transit disruptions impact long-haul destinations

However, the impact of the conflict was even broader: the UAE and other countries in the region served as transit hubs for approximately 700,000 Russians traveling to the Indian Ocean islands, parts of Southeast Asia, and even Europe (via Kuwait).

A critical dependence on connecting flights through the Persian Gulf emerged for many destinations: Mauritius and African countries (85%), Malaysia (65%), Indonesia (50–55%), Maldives and Seychelles (35–40%). At least 10 countries popular among Russians, including Thailand, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines, are at risk. Connections in Persian Gulf countries were generally cheaper than alternatives. Their loss has led to the disappearance of low-cost flights to exotic islands.

Sales decline and financial losses mount

Combined with the temporary ban on tour sales to the UAE and other Gulf countries, this situation caused an overall year-on-year decline of 30% in Russian tour operators' sales in March 2026.

According to our estimates, the total direct losses of tour operators resulting from the ban on tour sales to the Middle East are evaluated to be between 7 and 10 billion rubles.

At the beginning of the crisis, the proportion of customers requesting refunds for tours to closed countries was below 10%, but by the end of March, this rate exceeded 35%. Most tourists with tours booked to "problematic" countries are not giving up on their holidays; they are postponing their trips to a later date or choosing alternative routes. This rebooking process does not always proceed smoothly due to the need for additional payments; however, since the evacuation process to Russia for tour operator clients was much more organized compared to tourists who booked independently, audience loyalty toward tour operators generally remains intact.

Are changes being observed in the demand for tours and the pace of bookings for Turkey (in a positive or negative direction)?

Türkiye will undoubtedly remain the primary and largest mass beach destination for Russians in the 2026 summer season. This is due to the widest flight network from Russian cities, the traditional popularity of Antalya and the Aegean coast as clear and familiar destinations for the Russian consumer, the vast and diverse room capacity, and the "all-inclusive" system favored by Russians.

However, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and its tendency to spread to other countries has created a negative information environment that has slowed down bookings for Türkiye and Egypt.

Türkiye should show more positive results in April

It is noteworthy that in March, the flow of Russian tourists to Antalya decreased by 3% following a successful February. According to our analysts' data, Türkiye should show more positive results in April, thanks to some tours originally destined for the Middle East being redirected to Antalya, and some transit tourists choosing Istanbul instead of Persian Gulf countries.

As for summer bookings, we cannot yet say that Türkiye has benefited from the redistribution of tourist flows. Despite the assurances of tour operators, many tourists under the influence of the media are currently postponing decisions regarding trips to Türkiye and have entered a "wait-and-see" mode.

Turkish hotels need to offer competitive prices

This situation also affects the plans of tour operators—some see a "stagnation" in summer bookings and are already relinquishing block seats on flights to Türkiye from certain cities.

It is currently difficult to make a forecast for the summer season in Türkiye—there are too many factors influencing consumer behavior and the tourism business. The majority of bookings may be made within the season, but for bookings to increase, Turkish hotels need to offer competitive prices: the real income of Russians is not increasing; on the contrary, it has been falling for the second year.

Other destinations dependent on connections via Gulf states are also suffering

Which destinations have been most affected by the current situation?

The most affected have undoubtedly been the Persian Gulf countries themselves—UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Demand for them has almost stopped, and tour sales are prohibited.

However, as I mentioned earlier, other destinations dependent on connections in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman are also suffering.

For example, in March, the number of Russian visitors to Mauritius, a luxury island destination, decreased by 38.3%; the tourist flow from Russia to Sri Lanka fell by 19.4% in March; and the Russian tourist flow to the Maldives showed only a very slight increase in March (+3.5%) (there were year-on-year increases of 34.5% and 19.4% in January and February, respectively). The tourist flow from Russia to Thailand decreased by 6.14% year-on-year in March.
We are currently recording a sharp "flow" in demand toward the Southeast Asia region, mostly to countries with extensive direct flight networks. For instance, interest in Vietnam has tripled, while interest in China has increased by one-third; Thailand, for now, is maintaining its position.

How has geopolitical tension affected pricing policy?

According to data from major tour operators, the average price of tours to Türkiye increased by 4-6% this year, reaching 130,000 rubles per person. However, the cost of holidays for families with children remains high, ranging between 400,000 and 500,000 rubles for a trip for three or four people at a standard five-star hotel; this represents a serious financial burden for many Russian families due to the lack of rising incomes.

Turkish hoteliers are also starting to carefully offer special deals

Due to the consequences of the crisis, many foreign destinations are currently trying to stimulate the flow of foreign tourists (including those from Russia) through discount policies and special offers. For example, Maldives hotels are already providing discounts of 5-20% to Russian tour operators due to the decline in tourist flow from Europe. Sri Lanka is also beginning to do this. Prices in Egypt, at least, are not increasing. According to our current sentiment, Turkish hoteliers are also starting to carefully offer special deals to stimulate demand—and this is the correct policy for encouraging demand.

Are airline transportation offers on the Russia-Turkey line currently sufficient for this year?

While summer air transport between Russia and Türkiye has the widest flight network (19-25 Russian cities) and the largest seat volume across various tour operators, we believe it could be even larger.

Türkiye’s tourist numbers don’t tell the whole story

It should be remembered that in 2019, the most successful year for Türkiye, tourists were flying to Antalya from 50 cities in Russia. The fact that the tourist flow to Türkiye is approaching 7 million (the 2019 level) is misleading—because the increase mainly stems from short stays in Istanbul by transit tourists and much less from the resorts in Antalya and the Aegean coast, which are the main products of tour operators.

Nevertheless, current demand is generally being met. One of the key trends limiting demand for Turkey as a beach holiday is prices, which often do not align with budgets.

This situation, combined with the current wait-and-see policy of tourists regarding summer bookings, is pushing some market players to remove block seats on flights from certain regional cities. This is a quite concerning signal, but we traditionally rely on the flexibility and business acumen of the Turkish tourism industry. Instinct and logic have generally not failed them in such situations in the past.

What are your overall forecasts for the 2026 tourism season?

Despite geopolitical uncertainty and a high degree of unpredictability, we maintain our cautious optimism. However, it is too early to make forecasts with definitive figures.

Firs five destinations in Russian market

Our analysts have preliminarily identified five leaders for the 2026 summer season.

Türkiye will undoubtedly take the first place again. However, it is difficult to predict growth dynamics compared to last year. ATOR analysts were speaking of a possible moderate growth (3-5%) even before the events in the Persian Gulf. Demand for transit passengers via Istanbul will certainly increase, but the dynamics of the Russian tourist flow to Antalya will depend on the pricing policy of hoteliers and the extent of discounts.

Egypt ranks second. This destination supports sales thanks to its prices. In particular, the luxury hotel segment, which has lower prices compared to its counterparts in Turkey, is growing well.

China will take the third spot. The classic tourist flow to this country is increasing rapidly due to the wide flight network and comfortable hotel prices. Chinese hoteliers on Hainan island are also gradually starting to implement the "all-inclusive" system.

The Middle East crisis has led to a diversification of demand in Russia

Fourth place is likely to be held by Vietnam, where Russian tour operators are organizing extensive charter programs. Thailand occupies the fifth spot. This top 5 is valid provided that nothing else happens.

The Russian market always shows high adaptability. The Middle East crisis has led to a diversification of demand in outbound tourism: Asian countries such as Vietnam, China, and possibly Thailand are currently benefiting. We expect this trend of increasing demand for Southeast Asia to continue throughout the year.

The recovery of demand for Middle Eastern destinations in Russia, particularly for the UAE, will, in my opinion, be possible at the earliest by the beginning of summer and on the condition that the stable escalation of the conflict subsides. In an optimistic scenario, we estimate that the Russian tourist flow to the Persian Gulf region could recover to 60-70% of the 2025 figures by the end of 2026.

The downturn has been linked to regional geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, which has impacted travel demand across the Gulf. Against this backdrop, several high-profile properties have announced temporary closures under the banner of refurbishment and repositioning.

Armani Hotel Dubai announces full transformation

One of Dubai’s flagship luxury properties, the Armani Hotel Dubai, confirmed it has closed as of April 1, 2026, to undergo a comprehensive renovation program. Located in Burj Khalifa, the hotel first opened in 2010 as the inaugural hospitality project under the Armani brand.

Management described the project as a “full-scale transformation,” aimed at preserving the brand’s signature aesthetic while adapting the property to future market expectations.

While booking systems currently show no availability until January 4, 2027, the operator has indicated a targeted reopening in Q4 2026. During this period, the hotel will remain entirely off sale.

Jumeirah Burj Al Arab begins 18-month renovation

Another landmark property, the Jumeirah Burj Al Arab, was among the first to announce a closure for refurbishment. The hotel, which has been in operation for 25 years, is entering an 18-month renovation cycle.
The project is being led by French interior designer Tristan Auer, known for high-profile restorations such as Hôtel de Crillon and Carlton Cannes.

According to Thomas B. Meier, the objective is to preserve the hotel’s iconic identity while modernizing its infrastructure for the next 25 years. The renovation will retain signature design elements while incorporating bespoke materials, craftsmanship, and upgraded technology.

St. Regis Dubai The Palm suspends hotel operations

The St. Regis Dubai The Palm has also halted its accommodation operations as part of a refurbishment program. While guest rooms are closed, selected food and beverage venues within the property continue to operate.

In an official statement, management noted that certain areas of the hotel would be inaccessible from mid-April 2026, while curated guest experiences would remain available during the renovation phase.

Dining venues such as SushiSamba and concepts within St. Regis Gardens—including Trèsind Studio, Chez Wam, Signor Sassi, LEÑA, Aretha, and Hanu—continue to serve guests throughout the redevelopment period.

Radisson Blu Hotel Dubai Media City to exit brand

The Radisson Blu Hotel Dubai Media City will stop accepting guests from April 30, 2026, as part of a planned renovation. However, its food and beverage outlets—including Certo, Chef’s House, and Icon—will remain operational until the end of the year.

The closure also marks a strategic transition, as the property is set to discontinue operations under the Radisson Blu brand starting in 2027.

Opened in 2006, the 246-room complex has been a key hospitality asset in Dubai Media City.

Park Hyatt Dubai Enters Final Renovation Phase

The Park Hyatt Dubai will temporarily cease operations from May 2026 as it enters the final phase of its long-term renovation program.

Located in the Dubai Creek area, the property described the closure as part of its broader development strategy. The planned shutdown will enable completion of the final refurbishment stage, with reopening details expected to be announced later in the year.

General Manager Ersev Demiröz stated that the renovation has been carefully designed to enhance the guest experience while remaining faithful to the property’s core identity.

Sector-wide Impact

The simultaneous closure of multiple high-end properties reflects a broader shift in Dubai’s hospitality landscape. While operators emphasize long-term brand repositioning and asset enhancement, the clustering of renovation timelines during a period of weakened demand highlights the current pressures facing the destination’s luxury segment.

According to February 2026 provisional data, the country welcomed approximately 5.7 million international visitors, marking a 2.8% year-on-year increase. This brought total arrivals for the first two months of the year to around 10.7 million, up 2% compared to the same period in 2025.

Key source markets show mixed performance

The United Kingdom remained Spain’s largest inbound market, generating over 1 million visitors in February and 1.9 million in the January–February period. It was followed by France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands.

However, performance across key European markets was uneven. While the UK maintained its leading position, France recorded a notable 11.7% decline in the first two months of the year, and Germany showed flat growth.

In contrast, the “rest of the world” segment surged by 19.1%, highlighting Spain’s success in diversifying demand beyond its traditional European base.

Independent travel and commercial accommodation lead trends

Travel patterns indicate a continued shift toward independent travel, with 4.4 million in February made outside package tours, compared to 1.2 million package holiday. Although both segments grew, package tours rose slightly faster (+3.9%), while independent travel increased by 2.5%.

Accommodation preferences further underline this trend. Hotel stays increased by 3.6%, while rental accommodation surged by 13.7%, reflecting growing demand for alternative lodging options. Meanwhile, non-commercial stays (friends/family) declined by 2.3%.

The most common length of stay remained 4–7 nights, which grew by 4.1%, while both short stays (day trips) and long stays (15+ nights) declined.

Canary Islands lead arrivals, Valencia gains momentum

Regionally, the Canary Islands remained Spain’s top destination in February, capturing 26.8% of total arrivals, followed by Catalonia and Andalusia.

However, Valencia stood out with a 10.4% growth rate, signaling rising competitiveness among secondary destinations. In contrast, the Balearic Islands saw an 8.1% decline, indicating shifting seasonal demand patterns.

Tourism revenue exceeds €15 billion in two months

Parallel to rising visitor numbers, Spain’s tourism revenues showed stronger growth.

International tourists generated €7.6 billion in February alone, up 4.6% year-on-year. For the January–February period, total tourism revenue reached €15.4 billion, representing a 6.9% increase.

Higher spending per tourist supports revenue growth

Average spending indicators also improved:
• Per tourist expenditure rose to €1,366 (+1.7%)
• Daily spending increased to €190 (+3.4%)
• Average stay slightly declined to 7.2 nights

Spending patterns highlight transport and experiences

The largest share of tourist expenditure was allocated to international transport (23.4%, +11%), followed by:

• Activities (20.4%)
• Accommodation (17.2%)
• Food & beverage (16.1%)

Notably, non-package travel spending accounted for 85.5% of total expenditure, reinforcing the strength of independent travel behavior.

Hotels drive revenue growth

Hotels remained the dominant revenue generator, accounting for 59.1% of total spending, with 8.1% growth. In contrast, spending by tourists staying with friends or relatives declined by 4.8%.

Both package travel (+4.8%) and independent travel spending (+4.5%) posted gains, confirming a broadly positive demand environment.

Leisure dominates, but business travel gains pace

Leisure travel continued to dominate, representing 79.8% of total tourism spending, with a modest 2.1% increase.

However, business travel emerged as a high-growth segment, with total spending rising 5.6% and per capita expenditure surging by 12.5%, indicating stronger yield potential.

Catalonia leads revenue growth among regions

In terms of tourism receipts, the Canary Islands ranked first with a 29.1% share, followed by Catalonia (18%) and Madrid (15.3%).

Catalonia recorded the strongest growth (+18.7%), while the Canary Islands saw a slight 1.6% decline in revenue, suggesting a shift in spending distribution across regions.

Geopolitical tensions drive fuel prices

The surge in costs is linked to geopolitical events. The US and Israel’s attacks on Iran, subsequent restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and retaliatory strikes have sharply increased global fuel prices. Airline fuel costs have risen dramatically, with per-ton prices approaching $1,650, significantly raising transport expenses for package holidays, particularly to Antalya. Additional costs of $70–150 per traveler and $60–100 per seat are now being applied on many routes, directly affecting consumer decisions.

Travel behavior shifts toward alternative destinations

Rising package costs are influencing traveler behavior. Consumers from Russia and the CIS are postponing vacations, reducing spending, and increasingly seeking destinations that offer better price advantages. Egypt, Thailand, and Vietnam have emerged as alternative options, while Türkiye’s short-term competitiveness is under pressure. Demand, which had been relatively stable early in the season, began to slow sharply in the second half of March, with consumers deferring purchases and conversion rates weakening.

Critical decision point is April 15

Industry observers identify April 15 as a critical date. A significant number of passengers have booked but not yet completed payments, and their final decisions are expected to depend largely on fuel surcharges applied by airlines. Experts describe the current situation not as a typical early booking period but as an “early warning (SOS)” phase, highlighting the urgency for the sector to respond.

Risk of cancellations and chain reactions

The main concern is not just slower bookings but also the potential for a cascade of cancellations. Travelers unwilling to accept fuel surcharges may shift to alternative destinations, which could trigger substantial losses throughout the summer season. This chain reaction could impact high-volume tourist flows and overall sector performance, making timely intervention critical.

Urgent need for coordinated action

While the current crisis is primarily a temporary cost issue, experts warn that lack of coordinated action could result in lasting market losses. Rapid collaboration among airlines, hotels, tour operators, and public institutions is essential. Short-term support measures and balancing mechanisms will be vital to stimulate new bookings and protect existing reservations, helping stabilize the Russian tourism market amid ongoing fuel price volatility.

Speaking to Turizm Ekonomi, the sister B2B travel portal of Türkiye Travel News, Karaçor said bookings had been running around 40% ahead of last year prior to the outbreak of the war, with Anex outperforming the market. However, demand began to weaken gradually after hostilities started.

“Before the war, our sales were about 40% higher than last year and ahead of the market. After the war began, bookings started to decline gradually,” Karaçor said.

He noted that Türkiye bookings initially remained stable, but sentiment shifted after missile debris fell on Turkish territory and the United States issued a travel advisory for southern Türkiye. Although the warning specifically referred to Adana and eastern regions, it was perceived more broadly, prompting risk-averse travelers to delay bookings.

Egypt bookings drop 70%

Karaçor said the war has had a particularly severe impact on Egypt, where daily sales flows have been heavily disrupted during the peak season.

“Egypt is currently in high season, with dozens of flights operating daily. Since we rely heavily on last-minute sales, the situation directly affects operations. Bookings to Egypt have dropped by around 70%,” he said.

Türkiye sales down 40%

Türkiye has also seen a significant decline in demand, with sales down around 40%, according to Karaçor. Despite efforts to reassure travel agencies that tourism operations continue normally, perception remains difficult to change.

“There is serious misinformation, especially on social media. Even news mentioning Türkiye can create concern among tourists,” he said.

Cancellations limited, but demand slows

Cancellations currently stand at around 15% of pre-war daily sales levels. Karaçor emphasized that uncertainty is leading consumers to postpone new bookings rather than cancel existing ones.

“If the war ends quickly, the balance could shift rapidly. Türkiye is not a party to the conflict, but travelers are waiting to see how developments unfold,” he added.

Spain gains, Greece stable

Among alternative destinations, Spain has seen a notable increase of around 30% in bookings, while Greece has not recorded a comparable shift.

Karaçor said it remains unclear whether the increase is directly linked to diverted Türkiye demand, noting that many travelers appear to be in a wait-and-see mode.

Close coordination with sector stakeholders

Karaçor highlighted ongoing coordination with the Türkiye Tourism Promotion and Development Agency (TGA) and other stakeholders to communicate that Türkiye is not part of the conflict.

“We are in close contact with partners and continue to provide regular updates to reinforce this message,” he said.

Managing financial risks

He also noted that incoming agencies are working to manage risks related to post-dated hotel payments issued to suppliers. While recalling all checks could disrupt the system, paying for unsold reservations also poses risks.

“We did not take such measures even during the pandemic. A balanced, month-by-month approach is needed,” he said.

Airline bookings also decline

Discussions with airlines indicate that bookings to Türkiye have fallen by 35–40%, reflecting broader demand weakness.

Summer season operations begin

Karaçor said summer season flights began on March 21, with most capacity already sold in advance, although some cancellations have occurred.

“We are managing this period with short-term measures. I do not expect major problems for the summer season. Marketing and promotional activities continue as planned,” he said.

Target: 850,000 German tourists in 2026

Looking ahead, Karaçor confirmed that Anex plans to bring 850,000 travelers from Germany to Türkiye in 2026, representing a 20% increase year-on-year.

The company aims to maintain around 100,000 passengers to Spain, expand capacity in Greece, and significantly grow Egypt volumes to around 150,000 in the near term, citing its competitive pricing advantage.

Competitive strategy: Brand strength and revenue management

Karaçor underlined that Anex operates in Germany through four brands—Anex Tour, Oger Tours, Bucher Reisen, and Neckermann Reisen—and does not compete through aggressive agency commissions.

“Our strength comes from our brands and multi-supplier structure. We also manage pricing and seat capacity internally through our revenue management systems, allowing us to act independently of market fluctuations,” he said.

Airline capacity pressures prices

Karaçor warned that rapidly increasing airline capacity in Germany is putting downward pressure on prices.

“As supply exceeds demand, fares drop significantly—even to 50–60 euros one-way in August—forcing tour operators to lower package prices,” he said, adding that airlines are increasingly becoming direct competitors.

Türkiye no longer a low-cost destination

He also stressed that Türkiye is no longer a low-cost destination, with inflation driving up hotel prices.

“High-end hotels manage this better, but budget segments are under pressure. Türkiye does not need to be cheap, but it offers far superior service quality compared to lower-priced destinations like Egypt,” he said.

Fuel prices a key risk factor

Karaçor concluded by warning that rising oil prices—especially if exceeding 100 dollars per barrel—could significantly impact aviation costs, package prices, and consumer purchasing decisions.

“Ending the war and reopening key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz is critical. However, even then, fuel prices may not fall quickly. This will continue to influence both pricing and demand,” he said.

The number of visitors arriving in February fell by 2.08% year-on-year to 2.126 million. Iran ranked as the top source market during the month with 205,000 visitors, followed by Germany (176,000), the Russian Federation (171,000), Bulgaria (158,000), and Georgia (93,000).

For the January–February period, total foreign visitor arrivals rose slightly by 0.70% to 4.373 million. Iran remained the leading market with 430,000 visitors, followed by the Russian Federation (392,000), Germany (337,000), Bulgaria (330,000), and Georgia (182,000).

Top declining source markets

Despite the overall increase, several important source markets recorded significant declines in the first two months of 2026. The steepest drops were seen in Kuwait (-36.70%), Qatar (-32.21%), Bahrain (-26.31%), Libya (-19.62%), and the United Arab Emirates (-19.21%).

Other notable declines included Jordan (-18.28%), Indonesia (-17.66%), Morocco (-12.82%), Tunisia (-12.79%), Lebanon (-12.90%), India (-12.81%), and Iran (-7.22%), the latter being particularly critical as one of Türkiye’s largest source markets.

European markets such as the United Kingdom (-7.14%), France (-5.60%), and Ukraine (-5.62%) also posted declines.

Strong growth from emerging and secondary markets

On the upside, several markets posted strong growth. China led with a 52.13% increase, followed by Poland (+21.79%) and Colombia (+19.50%). Other notable gains came from Romania (+13.10%), Sweden (+13.11%), Singapore (+13.83%), Finland (+10.87%), Portugal (+10.65%), and Northern Cyprus (+10.05%).

Among Türkiye’s major markets, the United States grew by 6.20%, Russia by 5.56%, Germany by 2.28%, Bulgaria by 4.43%, and Georgia by 8.35%.

Update on emerging markets

In the first two months of 2026, Türkiye welcomed approximately 122,000 visitors from the United States (+6.20%). Arrivals from South Korea declined by 2.30% to 33,000, while India saw a sharper drop of 12.81% to around 28,000 visitors.

Japan recorded a 6.55% increase with 22,000 visitors, Canada rose by 3.36% to 27,000, and Australia saw a slight decline of 0.7%, with approximately 13,000 visitors.

Overall, the data highlights a fragile recovery pattern, with growth driven by secondary markets while core and high-spending regions—particularly in the Middle East—continue to weaken.